Tagged Black Swan

Browsing all posts tagged with Black Swan

Cognitive Biases, Positive Black Swan Events and Startups

Success and Cognitive Bias

One thing that often strikes me about conversations regarding start-up success is the pervasiveness of the narrative fallacy and hindsight bias.

We can go to Wikipedia's entry on Taleb for a definition:

Narrative fallacy: creating a story post-hoc so that an event will seem to have an identifiable cause.

Allow me to illustrate.  What caused YouTube to grow at phenomenal rates in 2005/2006, eventually leading to a $1.65 billion acquisition by Google in 2006?

Was the cause:
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